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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: April 24th, 2023

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  • God, fuck ethanol. Last I checked it literally took 1.5 gallons of oil/gas to produce 1 gallon of ethanol. It turns more fuel into less fuel and pisses away soil fertility doing it.

    I read an article some time ago arguing the purpose of ethanol (and ag subsidies in general) is, consciously or unconsciously, manifest destiny - we have to have a “use” for all the land we stole, we have to do something with it even if that something is a complete waste, because otherwise, people might start asking why we don’t give it back. Seems more likely to me all the time.







  • I think there are more important things than fairness. We have laws requiring employers to give you paid time off for jury duty and it’s still a significant burden on a lot of people. For someone to be chosen by lot to participate in what’s likely to be the equivalent of a full-time job? Frankly, it would be unfair to place that burden on people who didn’t sign up for it.

    And sortition would be pretty much guaranteed to fail if the people chosen by lot weren’t drawn from a pool who’d already proven they understood, to some degree, the issues they would be making decisions about. If we take conscripts instead of volunteers, we’d have a committee full of people who didn’t know, or care, about the issues, who didn’t want to be there in the first place, and who’d happily rubber stamp the decisions of whoever on the committee was the loudest and most passionate so that they could go home early.

    And I think you have to draw a distinction between influence and corruption. Everybody has the right to advocate for policies that benefit them. Everybody has the right to form unions and groups and lobby for policies that benefit them. So of course this committee will be influenced by outside parties. The alternative is decision makers who don’t listen to people telling them what they want and need, and that’s not good for society.

    And of course there will be explicit and implicit bribes, there will be be influence campaigns, and so on, because you can’t have any decision making process, anywhere, that people won’t try to rig.

    But: it’s much, much more difficult for some corrupt billionaire to bribe 100-plus members of a committee - especially if, as I hope, that committee makes decisions by consensus, anarchist style, instead of by majority vote - than it is to bribe one politician. And once you’ve bribed all those committee members, as soon as their term expires you have to bribe a whole new committee, because there’s no guarantee that any committee member will be selected by lot next year (and, in fact, I’d argue someone shouldn’t be eligible to serve again for x number of years after being chosen). On the other hand, bribing a career politician is a continuing investment that pays off year after year after year.



  • Remember that sortition is government by committee. You’re not selecting one person to be in charge by lot and taking a gamble on that person’s competence; you’re selecting a group of dozens or hundreds of people, from a pool of qualified volunteers, and having them come to a consensus on what to do.

    If I had to decide who would make better decisions, a committee of 100 or so ordinary citizens, all of whom were more politically active and aware than the average citizen (or they wouldn’t volunteer in the first place), or a career politician whose first priority is to manipulate citizens into voting for him and whose second priority is to make money off his position, I’d choose the committee every time. Better a group of people who may have been influenced by post-truth brainwashing than one of the people doing the brainwashing in the first place.





  • That’s actually a part I don’t disagree with. Local short-term problems still do need to be solved. They are the symptoms of the underlying disease that is the global capitalist economy, and we have to fight the disease instead of just fighting the symptoms - but if you don’t treat the symptoms, you might end up dying before you can treat the disease.

    And, also, the personal is political. People will see the impacts of climate change on their communities, and people will commit the time and effort to adapt to those impacts locally, and that will make people more willing to vote for the national and global collective action we need even more badly.

    Credibility and popularity are necessary. Getting people involved and committed on the local level is the first step to getting people involved and committed on the global level.

    If climate leaders lead people in that transition instead of stopping at the local level and saying “hey, we rented some solar panels from this fossil fuel megacorp that branched out into solar power, everything’s good now, go back to consuming as usual”.














  • You’re absolutely right. Trump demands the spotlight at all times.

    But also, I think your comment is an example of what Trump’s enemies still do not understand about him.

    To Donald Trump, no publicity is bad publicity.

    Even if it’s “bad publicity”.

    If the media is talking about Trump’s mistakes, then Trump’s minions will be all over the news defending Trump and arguing with the people attacking Trump. Trump’s supporters will believe the people defending him, Trump’s opponents will keep being his opponents, and moderates will dismiss the whole argument as just another political he said she said.

    And Trump will be the center of the news cycle for yet another day, and become even stronger in his position as the leader of the Republican Party and the biggest celebrity in America.

    Jesus fucking Christ, we had four years of the Biden administration trying to get Trump on anything they could, four years of daily headlines about Trump being accused of crimes, or being arraigned for crimes, or being arrested for crimes, and Trump went into the 2024 election more popular than he was in 2020.

    If you talk about Trump, he wins.

    The only way to beat Trump, as hard as it is, is to fucking ignore him and talk about what the American people actually need instead.






  • I’m just hung up on the proffered idea that LLMs are actually going to replace anybody in an efficient sustainable way, or even reach AGI someday.

    I share your concern with that point, to some degree. On the other hand, Cory Doctorow makes a great point: an AI cannot do your job as well as you can, but a salesman can convince your boss to fire you and replace you with an AI, because it’ll make your boss money:

    The promise of AI – the promise AI companies make to investors – is that there will be AIs that can do your job, and when your boss fires you and replaces you with AI, he will keep half of your salary for himself, and give the other half to the AI company.

    And even if AI is shit at your job, the cost savings from not paying humans means corporations will still make more money providing a shitty AI product than a good human product, just like corporations make more money now selling shitty mass produced plastic crap than they do quality products from skilled workers.

    And from there you get mass unemployment and all the social and cultural impacts therefrom.

    (What is your view on why billionaires are pushing AI? I think it’s a combination of “number go up” and an excuse to build the data centers the surveillance state needs for mass real time facial recognition, travel monitoring, and conversation recording/sentiment analysis, but that’s just me.)